Lalit Goel


Generating Capacity Probabilistic Planning

“The determination of the required amount of system generating capacity to ensure an adequate supply is an important aspect of power system planning and operation. The total problem can be divided into two conceptually different areas designated as static and operating capacity requirements. The static capacity area relates to the long-term evaluation of this overall system requirement. The operating capacity area relates to the short-term evaluation of the actual capacity required to meet a given load level.

The basic methodology for evaluating generating system reliability is to develop probability models for capacity on outage and for load demand, and calculate the probability of loss of load by a convolution of the two models. This calculation can be repeated for all the periods (e.g., weeks) in a year considering the changes in the load demand, planned outages of units, and any unit additions or retirements, etc. The methods available to compute generating system reliability indices are described in this module. The applications of basic probability concepts to generating capacity reliability assessment and their use in generation planning for the long will be illustrated. Indices such as LOLE and EENS shall be discussed in light of load forecast uncertainty, maintenance outages and energy-limited considerations.”

Probabilistic Planning of Electric Distribution Systems

This tutorial will discuss the basic reliability indices for distribution systems, including basic Radial and Meshed Configurations. Evaluation Methods for individual load point reliability indices and overall distribution system indices shall be presented. Factors Affecting Radial System Reliability will be presented in the form of Case studies. Studies shall incorporate Overlapping Permanent Outages and Busbar Failures, as well as Maintenance Outages & Transient Failures, common mode failures and adverse weather effects.

Composite Generation and Transmission System Probabilistic Planning

This tutorial shall cover the basic evaluation techniques for bulk power system reliability indices at individual load buses as well as for the overall system. Methods such as the Conditional Probability Method, Contingency Enumeration Method, etc. shall be illustrated in detail using a test system. Factors Affecting Load Bus and Overall System Reliabilities shall also be discussed.

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