Data-Driven Classifier for Extreme Outage Prediction Based On Bayes Decision Theory
The growing concern over catastrophic weather events, mostly as a direct result of climate changes, has underscored the need for expanding traditional power system contingency analyses to handle the associated risks of extreme power outages. To enable power system operators to make timely decisions when facing extreme events, we explore in this paper the viability of a classifier which uses the machine learning approach based on the Bayes decision theory as a means of predicting power system component outages.
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A Multi-State Model for Transmission System Resilience Enhancement Against Short-Circuit Faults Caused by Extreme Weather Events
Due to global climate change, the effect of extreme weather on power systems has attracted extensive attention. In the prior-art grid resilience studies, the hurricanes or wildfires are mainly defended in terms of expected line damages, while they are prone to trigger short-circuit fault (SCF) evolved with dynamic influence in reality. In this paper, a fragile model is developed to evaluate the nodal SCF probability considering the insulation aging of equipment and extreme weather condition.
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Resilience Enhancement With Sequentially Proactive Operation Strategies
Extreme weather events, many of which are climate change related, are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity and causing catastrophic outages, reminding the need to enhance the resilience of power systems. This paper proposes a proactive operation strategy to enhance system resilience during an unfolding extreme event. The uncertain sequential transition of system states driven by the evolution of extreme events is modeled as a Markov process. At each decision epoch, the system topology is used to construct a Markov state. Transition probabilities are evaluated according to failure rates caused by extreme events.
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